said first half profits of listed companies may vertex will be possible to gradually decline

\Periodic advantage or investment real estate industry and related industries stage investment opportunities, investment opportunities from the austerity relaxed. \Miss Three Musketeers \

economic short-term downside risks

Ren Zhuang said China's economy is facing short-term downside risks, in the first quarter GDP growth rate of 11.9% in the second quarter dropped to 10.3%. Soochow Fund forecast in the third quarter and fourth quarter of the GDP growth rate is going down, the pessimistic point, then, in the fourth quarter GDP growth may drop to 8.5%; optimistic that we believe in the 9% -9.5%. Overall, the downward trend is relatively clear. In other words, the Chinese economy V-recovery for the time being over, the short term downside risk facing the Chinese economy. Downward trend in industrial added value have emerged, which is a leading indicator.

the process of economic transformation in China's economic performance in how to judge it? Any strong view that, first of all, in the real estate regulation and the context of insufficient external demand, short-term investment through a structured process of change and growth down, heavy industry, such as steel, chemicals, general machinery industry growth rate will gradually decline, and livelihood security and national support for investment in new industries will be increased, but the short term is difficult to make up for investment growth in real estate and heavy industry decline. Therefore, the optimization of investment structure in China, while growth will face down. Second, in the context of structural adjustment in the short term China's economy will experience a painful period, its difficult to judge the length of time, but after the success of the transition, more stable and lasting economic growth.

policy trend in the second half of the stock market

Ren Zhuang, said first half profits of listed companies may vertex will be possible to gradually decline, the 2010 profit growth of listed companies to judge, optimistic researchers believe that the seller 25%, 20% pessimistic view point or 20%. The current A-share market price-earnings ratio is 15.67 times the dynamic,persuasion of the Subdistrict for the staff, dynamic book value is only about twice the current is a low since 2004. Investment in the stock market now has some margin of safety.

the second half of the stock market's performance mainly depends on the policy side of the trend, either for the policy to have a strong basic summary: The entire first half of the economy is up, because the economic data is good, but the policy is down, the entire monetary policy is tightening trend. But in the second half of the sum may be relatively simple with the first half of the round, that is the economy is down, including our target is to see a decline in GDP, but the policy should be upward, the second half of the entire economy Soochow Fund Panduan relatively more liberal than the first half of the policy.

he felt the first half of the policy relaxation time may be in the fourth quarter or third quarter. First of all, he thought the fourth quarter may be greater than the downside risks to the inflation pressure and the risk of the real estate bubble.

second and fourth quarter trend of economic downturn relatively obvious shrinkage over a period of time after the transaction, the possibility of house prices are loose, this is a real estate regulatory policies may relax the main reason.

Third, Soochow Fund judge, even if the policy easing in the fourth quarter, economic stimulus and can not reach the level of the end of 2008. Policy even if the relaxation, the direction will be to service needs, including encouraging investment, urban construction, industrial upgrading and reform of aspects of income distribution system.

investment in the second half of keywords

\. Bio-medicine, food and beverage and other varieties can be long-term hold.

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In addition, the focus on emerging industry stocks, including new energy, of things, microelectronics, life sciences, space marine, the depth of resource utilization and so on. New energy future is the fastest growing new energy vehicles, can be said that this year the first year of new energy vehicles, energy car the next few years is a new explosive growth of related industries and companies is a very big growth opportunity, LED, inside the biomedical life sciences and bio-breeding, as well as aerospace, marine and other industries have long been concerned about the company.

from past experience, the Japanese in 1974 -1,978 years of economic restructuring and structural adjustment, Japan was the better performance of the industry, including medicine, communications, transportation equipment, securities, auto, food consumption of the upgrade of these industry and electrical equipment, precision instruments and other technology-intensive industries. The traditional industries such as mining, steel and other raw materials industries, as well as shipping, shipbuilding, finance, real estate poorer performance. Upgrade the performance of its consumer good industries, heavy chemical industry and other traditional industries after the end of a long-term prosperity, poor performance, which for the present, China's capital market has some reference.

reporter Chen